Kate Dezarnaulds believes Kiama has a gift-wrapped opportunity to have a huge say in NSW Parliament while also getting better representation for the electorate.

Premier Chris Minns is at the helm of a minority government which is two seats shy of a majority and Dezarnaulds says Kiama would have its voice heard at Macquarie Street much more if they reject Labor at the ballot box in the 13 September by-election.

The Community Independent candidate told The Bugle that she believes Labor candidate Katelin McInerney is a clear favourite to win the seat because the Liberal Party will be punished heavily by the electorate for its past links to previous member, Gareth Ward.

His resignation after being found guilty of sexual assault offences prompted the by-election with the 44-year-old convicted rapist in jail in Cessnock awaiting sentencing six days after the electorate votes on his successor as the state member for Kiama.

Dezarnaulds finished a distant third behind re-elected Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips and Liberal nominee Andrew Constance in the federal election on 3 May.

The Kiama electorate could go from one end of the spectrum to the other - the Minns government previously gave Ward the cold shoulder but if they elect an independent for the next 18 months, they will devote plenty of resources to winning back the seat.

“We went to the last federal election where all of the polling was telling us that there was most likely going to be a minority Labor government with a very strong independent crossbench. And that didn't happen,” Dezarnaulds said.

“We ended up with a very dominant Labor Party as a result of the federal election.

"But we now have already a minority Labor government in the State Parliament with a very strong independent crossbench.

“And so the opportunity for Kiama is to have an independent who can play a real role in dialing back some of the arrogance and excesses of the Labor Party and be a strong voice for Kiama that the rest of the crossbench and the rest of the parliament is willing to work with.

“The last NSW Parliament was not collaborative with our former member. And the opportunities for the region have been really muted by his untenable position over the last three years.”

The Berry businesswoman said the local community was frustrated with both sides of politics.

“The Canberra and Macquarie Street-centric decision-making from the Liberals and Labor is a really poor vehicle to have local voices shape local solutions in regional communities,” she said.

“The frustration and disappointment within the community with the Greens means that from the base of the Greens, Labor and Liberal, there are a whole bunch of people looking for a new place to put their trust.”

Dezarnaulds believes the electorate is about to enter a period of significant change.

“I think this is a shoo-in for Labor, unless something really changes.

“Unless the community gets behind a genuine independent alternative, this is a shoo-in for Labor.

“I think it would be a huge surprise if the Liberal Party were able to resolve the conflicts of the last few years in the space of a three-week by-election.

“I am sure that Gareth's traditional supporter base will vote Liberal. But I think that there is a growing portion of the community who are traditional supporters of all of the major parties who have become disillusioned with the party system.

“As a small business leader and a sensible centre alternative that can see that we have got a big job ahead of us on the energy transition and housing.

“Both housing and energy transition require somebody who can make sure that in the rush for these two large changes that the local voices are still heard. And we need to be able to build the social licence for the change that's ahead of us.

“I can't see how a Labor MP for Kiama is going to be able to share the concerns and the interests of the people of Kiama in a way that's going to move the needle on what seems like a fait accompli on a number of levels.

“This is a rare case where you really get a try-before-you-buy opportunity. We will be going back to the electorate in 18 months' time and asking for another chance.

“The community will get to see and feel really quickly whether or not they have made the right choice. It is a rare chance where you can take a risk on a fresh option.”