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Gilmore on a knife edge with election set to go down to the wire

The Bugle App

Paul Suttor

01 May 2025, 11:00 PM

Gilmore on a knife edge with election set to go down to the wireVolunteers at the Kiama Uniting Church pre-poll station. Photo: The Bugle

The time has come for Gilmore to decide whether Labor incumbent Fiona Phillips will retain the most marginal federal seat in Australia.


Liberal rival Andrew Constance is out for revenge after losing the 2022 count by a mere 373 votes while independent candidate Kate Dezarnaulds believes she has a groundswell of support to get the jump on the major parties after preferences are distributed.


More than a quarter of the Gilmore electorate voted within the first week of pre-polling being opened after Easter Monday.



But the people who enter their choice in the ballot box on election day on Saturday are traditionally swinging voters who often leave it until the last minute to decide which candidate they prefer.


Polling by YouGov released last weekend shows the Labor Party is ahead of the Liberals in Gilmore on a two-party preferred basis by 54-46 per cent.


Phillips is tipped to attract 36.2 per cent of the primary vote with Constance at 33.5 per cent, which is well down on the 42 per cent he received three years ago.



“I just do not pay any attention to polls, they can be wrong,” Phillips said.


“The only poll I'm concerned about is when I'm out talking with voters and that's why I have spent a lot of time at pre-poll stations, talking with voters - they're the votes that matter and on May 3 as well.”


Constance is quietly confident that he can exceed expectations to get the nod in Gilmore and as the campaign reaches its climax, he believes the controversial wind farm project slated to be installed off the Illawarra coastline is a recurring theme in the feedback he is getting from the electorate.



“It’s having an impact on the vote, I have no doubt,” he said.


“People are wanting to send (Federal Energy Minister) Chris Bowen, Fiona Phillips and Anthony Albanese a very clear message on the floating turbine proposal.


“A lot of people are expressing concern about the intrusive nature of it and the fact that Chris Bowen has said we're holding it off until after the election. Under Labor it will certainly happen.”



Dezarnaulds is hoping to follow the path that Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie took in the 2010 election when he won his seat from third place with just 21% of the primary vote.


“We’ve done the maths, and we think we can do the same," she said.


The Greens’ candidate, Debbie Killian, and One Nation’s John Hawke could potentially play a factor in the final outcome with each party predicted to attract around 8 per cent of the primary vote.


Graham Brown (Family First), Adrian Carle (Legalise Cannabis Party) and Melissa Wise (Trumpet of Patriots) are also in the race for Gilmore.